market update and projections
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Frequency of updates will be market dependent. sometimes multiple times a week, sometimes once week. so avoid DMing every Sunday asking wen update?
Two things to keep in mind.
1) If there is a change in stance then what was mentioned in the previous post then it would be sent via update.
till then presume there is none.
this precisely why an indicator has been given to those wanting to make more frequent trades than the updates.
2) if there is a new entry/exit then it would be sent via update to the subs here first before discussing anywhere else. thats how its always been.
what to expect and what not has been detailed in the FAQ
COMMUNITY - will send a note when ready. theres no need for chasers.
MARKETS
coming to markets theres no chance in stance than previous updates. (do have a read again)
things are looking really good.
one of the legitimate fear in the market was that the cycle is over.
now since thats out of the way with the fresh breakout
dips are good opportunities to add to core plays.
model continues to be long majors BTC, ETH and SOL .
SOL continues to be the most promising major and theres a lot of room for outperformance.
we are only referring to relative risk reward here.
this does not mean ETH is bad or will not go up. its gotten an ETF that will start to trade today. considering how successful BTC etf has been.
eth eft too likely receive a LOT of flows.
tradfi loves selling. and eth story is a lot easier to sell than btc.
its got tech and yield narrative. biggest weakness of normies.
PROJECTIONS
heres some big picture mental math just to give a sense of where we are headed.
(i will always change my mind and respond to data as it unfolds)
as covered in the bull thesis crypto is not only highly cyclical but also shockingly consistent.
most folks like to do their math on pair trades like ethbtc / soleth.
they are decent for relative strength but
i have found dominance charts to be a better indicator when it comes to thematic / ecosystem bets.
at the peak of 21 cycle (rounded for simplicity) we had.
BTC dom - 40%
ETH dom - 20% (most promising major)
DOGE + SHIB dom- 6% (meme majors)
currently we are at
BTC.d - 56%
ETH.d - 18%
SOL.d - 3%
entire MEME sector dom - 2%
we are at the part of the cycle from where the dominance of majors go down and alts reprice up.
there are 2 very clear winners of this cycle and we have been very early on to them.
All of the data from adoption to usage to attention are pointing towards it.
SOLANA and MEMES
if history were to rhyme (my base case) very likely we get close to
BTC dom - 40%
ETH dom - 15%
SOL dom - 15%
MEME dom - 10%
Stablecoins + OTHERS - 20%
also my base is we see total crypto marketcap at $10T this cycle.
so the biggest opportunity in both absolute and relative terms lies in sol + memes space.
memes got to 6% dom last cycle when they were considered a joke.
this cycle everyone is slowly coming to consensus that
memes are tokenized culture.
Trillion $ market cap for meme sector is no more a joke and well within the realms of high probability.
Memes
heres the updated custom meme index
high conviction plays continues to be
WIF
POPCAT
BONK
BILLY
those who have read my bull thesis would be aware of the power of 2s mental model.
i believe those meme categories are cats & dogs this cycle.
rest of the themes are likely to be like tiktok trends. if you can catch them early then they work wonders but soon forgotten too.
this makes it harder to allocate with conviction or hold through volatility.
the grand idea is to identify multi billion $ winners and let the markets do the rest.
if meme dom goes 10% then these meme majors will have a long way to go.
ALTS
model continues to be long RAY and MOBILE.
RAY has done exceptionally well. up over 60% since long posted.
model has also flipped long on ORCA. another sol dex.
see you in the next one.