market update
if I told you things are NOT too bad and it triggers a strong emotional reaction
then it only means you are heavily allocated in one area and it needs some rethinking.
the readers of these update range from hardcore degens to folks only interested in BTC/ETH/SOL so ill to cover it from different angles today.
in the last updates below was my view
since then we have had a very bifurcated markets.
majors are doing fine but onchain/alts/memes etc have taken a beating.
below is the total crypto market cap and btc chart.
theres hardly been any pullback but the overall sentiment is that crypto has collapsed already.
the answer lies in allocation.
if someone was heavy into majors and lightly spread onchain they perhaps wouldnt get what the fuss is all about but
those who are only allocated to alts are in despair. and they also the ones very loud on twitter too.
also its human nature. even if you are profitable overall, you would still be fixated on that one trade sector which is very volatile and gets a lot of attention but could only 5%-10% of your overall portfolio.
where do we go from here?
one of the positives out of all this is
sentiment is cycle is over. memes over. crypto is worthless. VCs are scammers. builders have left. leverage is completely wiped off as well.
which is what you need for an upmove. but that alone isnt enough.
but when you combine that with
- BTC is so close to breakout.
- Tradfi equities already reclaimed most of the losses and back into breakout region
- USD (major risk on signal) has broken down and
- global liquidity is on the rise
- gold is constantly making new ATH
is not something to be bearish about.
infact with the amount of selling thats happed by German and US gov and kamala betting odds of becoming president shots up a lot in last few weeks.
btc strength relatively speaking has been good.
old time readers know we only follow the trend and have no favorites.
only the new readers think that we favor solana and memes.
this cycle has truly been odd.
apart from btc + sol + memes theres hardly been anything that got traction.
take eth for example. since very early on I have been writing about how eth is struggling.
while now its very clear in ETHBTC or SOLETH charts. it wasnt the case early on.
if tomorrow data were to change I would happily sell all sol and be more allocated to eth but for now its still struggling inspite of having a spot etf.
similarly we are also at a stage where most alts are down 80-90% and in hindsight the few that would perform would make it look like it was a no brainer to invest.
thats price to pay for confirmation. and trust me its worth paying.
right now theres none that has broken out. theres no need to catch a falling knife or prempt a trend.
Coming to memes
this is the latest update on the meme index which consists of the highest market cap memes like doge shib pepe bonk and many others.
they have been struggling but its what would expect from highest beta sector when theres a pullback and sentiment is in the gutter.
with the latest version of the indicator should be able to trade in and out of them for those interested.
most of our memes picks communities have been very active even during this fall which is great to see.
memes as a sector is not done imo but trenches/launches seem definitely over for now as I have been writing about in the last few updates.
the more established memes with active communities are likely to move with the overall markets.
stuff like wDOG and FWOG have very little price history but for others
from a trend perspective I have listed both HTF and LTF charts below.
both PEPE and WIF yet to breakout on HTF but are showing momentum on LTF.
overall for those who only want a trend only view can sit on cash and wait for the breakout confirmation to go long.
others who are fully allocated can shuffle some of the plays from low to high conviction ones or just do nothing let ride.
most of the action will come back into the markets post BTC breaking 70K.
while its good to be conservative its not time for super gloom and doom.
also short term we are so oversold that we would likely have relief bounce this week.
see you in the next one.